Connecting to the official Treasury curve…
No estimated or placeholder rates will be shown while the source is unavailable.
OBSERVER / POLICY & LIQUIDITY
Policy. Liquidity. Market narrative.
Follow the forces shaping expectations: the Fed, positioning, Treasury supply and the yield curve.
RATES / NATIONAL LIQUIDITY
The market beneath the market.
Treasury supply, real yields and system liquidity can change the equity decision well after New York opens.
2s10s—LOADING CURVE
Connecting to official sources…
TREASURY SUPPLY / NY SESSION
REFRESHINGRecent results & upcoming supply
CURVE INVERSION WATCH
See the slope. Track the turn.
Negative spreads mean the shorter maturity yields more. Follow flattening, inversion and re-steepening.
Official spread history is temporarily unavailable.
POLICY EXPECTATIONS / CME FEDWATCH
Open CME FedWatch ↗The next decision, in context.
Separate the Fed’s current policy from the market’s expected path.
Current & compare ↗See target-range probabilities and changes from one day, one week and one month ago.Meeting path & history ↗Compare upcoming meetings and explore historical probabilities on the official tool.Dot plot & market path ↗Compare policymakers’ projections with the year-end rate implied by futures.
AUCTION → BONDS → RISK ASSETS
Follow the transmission.
Compare published demand with what prices actually did around the auction.
No published notes & bonds results in the loaded history. Scheduled auctions remain on the map above; no response is invented.